Reformational Commentary on Ezekiel 38:14
"Therefore, son of man, prophesy and say unto Gog, Thus saith the Lord God; In that day when my people of Israel dwelleth safely, shalt thou not know it?" (Ezekiel 38:14)
Most emphatically, if the Russian leader (Gog) at the time of the fulfilment of Ezekiel 38:14 is the author and broker of any peace in the Middle East,
he would surely know in a very special sense that the people of Israel are dwelling in confidence of their safety!
And by way of precedence, one might recall that it was reported back in 2020 that
Russia was offering to convene a peace
conference to defuse tensions over the West Bank.
That is because, according to defector testimony recounted by the anticommunist author
J.R. Nyquist,
Russia effectively regulates what major geopolitical plays Iran and its proxies make in the Middle East (exposing the falsity of the ostensible
partner-only status of Russia's and Iran's relationship),
and for some time Russia’s interest is not the overwhelming of Israel’s defences and the reduction
to rubble of its towns and cities, but rather, the establishment of a peace treaty that will progressively contribute to the diminution
of western influence
and military activity in the Middle East (a key, longstanding Russian strategic objective) before the coming global war begins; consider, for example,
Russia's offer to host mediation talks between Israel
and Palestinian leaders in Moscow back in 2016.
Russia knows it can deliver such a deal because it - not America - is the only country on earth capable of
corralling all of the Islamic powers, Sunni and Shiah, behind a single plan.
This readiness to be the broker was seen again during 2025's Israel-US strike aimed at destroying Iran’s
nuclear facilities, when Moscow proposed that Russia mediate to broker a resolution:
"Putin also emphasized Russia's readiness to carry out possible mediation efforts and noted that Russia had proposed steps aimed at finding mutually acceptable agreements during U.S.-Iran negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program." (Trump and Putin hold call, discuss Iran-Israel tensions, Ukraine war on 14th June 2025).
What a Russian-Brokered Peace Treaty for Israel Might Look Like
A peace treaty brokered by Russia might entail Russia guaranteeing Israel’s security, perhaps nominally for the sake of the 17% (or so) of Israel's population of
Russian extraction, but perhaps more explicitly in exchange for a stake in further development of Israel’s
hydrocarbon fields off its
Mediterranean coast.
Under such an arrangement, Russia might assure Israel that it would regulate or curtail Iran’s indigenous nuclear ambitions to ensure that Israel could
never be attacked by Iran; this would perhaps become a much more plausible proposal were Iran to be persuaded through Russian diplomacy to give up its
nuclear weapons program in exchange for hosting Russian-regulated nukes for “purely defensive purposes”, modelled on the
nuclear-sharing that the US
exercises in Europe where Germany, Holland, Belgium and Italy host American-supplied and -guarded nuclear bombs and have the platforms
(Panavia Tornadoes and F-16 Fighting Falcons) to deliver them under US direction.
That way Iran would, after a fashion and to some degree of comfort, get to have nuclear weapons but Russia would be able to plausibly assure Israel that those
warheads would never be used aggressively against it.
Underpinning that, Russia would also likely insist that Iran formally withdraw its threats to wipe Israel from the map and instead agree to
accept Israel as a regional hydrocarbon partner.
All of this would, obviously, prove a masterclass in statesmanship that would blindside the Americans and substantially sideline them as
Israel’s “big protector”, that role instead suddenly and slickly passing to Russia... if, that is, the US does not first shrug its shoulders
and walk away from the current debacle with Iran (as of April 2026) to leave Israel to fix its own problems.
Implications of a Middle East Peace Treaty for World War Three
Russia has been seeking and acquiring basing rights in the eastern Mediterranean and in the Red Sea region for over a decade.
If it secures peace in the Middle East in the fashion described above, and especially if it becomes a stakeholder in Israel’s hydrocarbon production,
it gains a reasonable justification for enjoying additional basing rights in Israel itself.
If that happens, the West loses a critical strategic foothold in the Levant during the current run-up to World War Three and if, additionally,
BRICS-flirting Turkey
completes its slow-boil pivot to Moscow,
NATO would lose its second largest army and its primary defensive blocking force on the doorstep of south eastern Europe.
Then, on top of that, if America were to become stretched by a Chinese breakout in the Pacific (for example), and the European armies were to be
diverted by more extensive Russian manoeuvres on NATO’s eastern flank, the Middle East in general and Israel in particular would become even more
exposed to Russia’s will.
At that point, Russia could be expected to make good on whatever promises it secretly made to its Islamic allies concerning the peace deal with Israel.
In plainest terms, Israel would be on the menu, and the West would be too distracted or stretched to intervene militarily.
Should events fall out that way over the next, say, 3-4 years, and if you have a safe place to bunker down in, you will know "it’s time".
